CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The statements relating to BCE’s financial guidance (including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, capital intensity, adjusted EPS and free cash flow) and BCE’s 2024 annualized common share dividend, which are contained on this Webpage, are forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the ‘safe harbour’ provisions of applicable Canadian securities laws and of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward-looking statements, by their very nature, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and are based on several assumptions, both general and specific, which give rise to the possibility that actual results or events could differ materially from our expectations expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements and that our business outlook, objectives, plans and strategic priorities may not be achieved. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events, and we caution you against relying on any of these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage describe our expectations as of November 7, 2024 and, accordingly, are subject to change after such date. Except as may be required by applicable securities laws, we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We regularly consider potential acquisitions, dispositions, mergers, business combinations, investments, monetizations, joint ventures and other transactions, some of which may be significant. Except as otherwise indicated by BCE, forward-looking statements do not reflect the potential impact of any such transactions or of special items that may be announced or that may occur after November 7, 2024. The financial impact of these transactions and special items can be complex and depends on the facts particular to each of them. We therefore cannot describe the expected impact in a meaningful way or in the same way we present known risks affecting our business. Forward-looking statements are presented on this Webpage for the purpose of assisting investors and others in understanding certain key elements of our expected financial results. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Material Assumptions
A number of economic, market, operational and financial assumptions were made by BCE in preparing its forward-looking statements contained on this Webpage, including, but not limited to the following:
Canadian Economic Assumptions
Our forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions concerning the Canadian economy. In particular, we have assumed:
- Modest economic growth, given the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimated growth in Canadian gross domestic product of 1.2% in 2024, unchanged from the earlier estimate
- Easing consumer price index (CPI) inflation reflecting weakening pressures
- Softening labour market
- Growth in consumer spending supported by decreases in interest rates
- Business investment growth underpinned by lower interest rates and higher demand
- Interest rates expected to remain at or near current levels
- Slowdown in population growth due to changes to government immigration policy
- Canadian dollar expected to remain near current levels. Further movements may be impacted by the degree of strength of the U.S. dollar, interest rates and changes in commodity prices.
Canadian Market Assumptions
Our forward-looking statements also reflect various Canadian market assumptions. In particular, we have made the following market assumptions:
- A higher level of wireline and wireless competition in consumer, business and wholesale markets
- Higher, but slowing, wireless industry penetration
- A shrinking data and voice connectivity market as business customers migrate to lower-priced telecommunications solutions or alternative over-the-top (OTT) competitors
- The Canadian traditional broadcast TV and radio advertising market is experiencing an ongoing slowdown with no improvement expected in the medium term, and visibility into the specific timing and pace of improvement remains limited
- Declines in broadcasting distribution undertaking (BDU) subscribers driven by increasing competition from the continued rollout of subscription video on demand (SVOD) streaming services together with further scaling of OTT aggregators
Assumptions Concerning our Bell CTS Segment
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal operational assumptions with respect to our Bell CTS segment:
- In the BCE 2023 Annual MD&A, we disclosed our assumption of increase in our market share of national operators’ wireless mobile phone net additions. We are now assuming that our market share of national operators’ wireless mobile phone net additions will remain stable or decrease slightly as we shift our focus from increasing market share to focus instead on economic and financial outcomes.
- Increased competitive intensity and promotional activity across all regions and market segments
- Ongoing expansion and deployment of 5G and 5G+ wireless networks, offering competitive coverage and quality
- Continued diversification of our distribution strategy with a focus on expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) and online transactions
- In the BCE 2023 Annual MD&A, we disclosed our assumption of moderating growth in mobile phone blended ARPU. We are now assuming declining mobile phone blended ARPU, due to a higher-than-anticipated level of competitive pricing pressure which intensified progressively in the first quarter of 2024, that has carried over from the seasonally more intense Q4 2023 selling period.
- Continuing business customer adoption of advanced 5G, 5G+ and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions
- Improving wireless handset device availability in addition to stable device pricing and margins
- Further deployment of direct fibre to more homes and businesses within our wireline footprint, but at a slower pace than during any of 2020 to 2023
- Continued growth in retail Internet and IPTV subscribers
- Increasing wireless and Internet-based technological substitution
- Continued focus on the consumer household and bundled service offers for mobility and Internet customers
- Continued large business customer migration to IP-based systems
- Ongoing competitive repricing pressures in our business and wholesale markets
- Continued competitive intensity in our small and medium-sized business markets as cable operators and other telecommunications competitors continue to intensify their focus on business customers
- Traditional high-margin product categories challenged by large global cloud and OTT providers of business voice and data solutions expanding into Canada with on-demand services
- Increasing customer adoption of OTT services resulting in downsizing of TV packages
- Growing consumption of OTT TV services and on-demand video streaming, as well as the proliferation of devices, such as tablets, that consume large quantities of bandwidth, will require ongoing capital investment
- Realization of cost savings related to operating efficiencies enabled by our direct fibre footprint, changes in consumer behaviour and product innovation, digital adoption, product and service enhancements, expanding self-serve capabilities, new call centre and digital investments, other improvements to the customer service experience, management workforce reductions including attrition and retirements, and lower contracted rates from our suppliers
- No adverse material financial, operational or competitive consequences of changes in or implementation of regulations affecting our communication and technology services business
Assumptions Concerning our Bell Media Segment
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal operational assumptions with respect to our Bell Media segment:
- Overall digital revenue expected to reflect continued scaling of our Strategic Audience Management (SAM) TV and demand-side platform buying platforms, expansion of Addressable TV, as well as DTC subscriber growth, contributing towards the advancement of our digital-first media strategy
- Leveraging of first-party data to improve targeting, advertisement delivery including personalized viewing experience and attribution
- Continued escalation of media costs to secure quality content
- Continued scaling of Crave through optimized content offering, user experience improvements and expanded distribution
- Continued support in original French content with a focus on digital platforms such as Crave, Noovo.ca and iHeartRadio Canada, to better serve our French-language customers through a personalized digital experience
- Ability to successfully acquire and produce highly-rated and differentiated content
- Building and maintaining strategic supply arrangements for content across all screens and platforms
- No adverse material financial, operational or competitive consequences of changes in or implementation of regulations affecting our media business
Financial Assumptions Concerning BCE
Our forward-looking statements are also based on the following internal financial assumptions with respect to BCE for 2024:
- An estimated post-employment benefit plans service cost of approximately $215 million
- An estimated net return on post-employment benefit plans of approximately $70 million
- Depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $5,050 million to $6,000 million
- Interest expense of approximately $1,700 million to $1,750 million
- Interest paid of approximately $1,750 million to $1,800 million
- An average effective tax rate of approximately 60%
- Non-controlling interest of approximately $40 million
- Contributions to post-employment benefit plans of approximately $55 million
- Payments under other post-employment benefit plans of approximately $60 million
- Income taxes paid (net of refunds) of approximately $700 million to $800 million
- Weighted average number of BCE common shares outstanding of approximately 912 million
- An annual common share dividend of $3.99 per share
Assumptions underlying expected continuing contribution holiday in 2024 in the majority of our pension plans
We have made the following principal assumptions underlying the expected continuing contribution holiday in 2024 in the majority of our pension plans:
- At the relevant time, our defined benefit (DB) pension plans will remain in funded positions with going concern surpluses and maintain solvency ratios that exceed the minimum legal requirements for a contribution holiday to be taken for applicable DB and defined contribution (DC) components
- No significant declines in our DB pension plans’ financial position due to declines in investment returns or interest rates
- No material experience losses from other events such as through litigation or changes in laws, regulations or actuarial standards
The foregoing assumptions, although considered reasonable by BCE on November 7, 2024, may prove to be inaccurate. Accordingly, our actual results could differ materially from our expectations as set forth on this Webpage.
Material Risks
Important risk factors that could cause our assumptions and estimates to be inaccurate and actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements, including our 2024 financial guidance, are listed below. The realization of our forward-looking statements, including our ability to meet our 2024 financial guidance targets, essentially depends on our business performance, which, in turn, is subject to many risks. Accordingly, readers are cautioned that any of the following risks could have a material adverse effect on our forward-looking statements. These risks include, but are not limited to: the negative effect of adverse economic conditions, including a potential recession, elevated inflation, high interest rates and financial and capital market volatility, and the resulting negative impact on business and customer spending and the demand for our products and services; the negative effect of adverse conditions associated with geopolitical events; regulatory initiatives, proceedings and decisions, government consultations and government positions that negatively affect us and influence our business including, without limitation, concerning mandatory access to networks, spectrum auctions, the imposition of consumer-related codes of conduct, approval of acquisitions, broadcast and spectrum licensing, foreign ownership requirements, privacy and cybersecurity obligations and control of copyright piracy; the inability to implement enhanced compliance frameworks and to comply with legal and regulatory obligations; unfavourable resolution of legal proceedings; the intensity of competitive activity and the failure to effectively respond to evolving competitive dynamics; the level of technological substitution and the presence of alternative service providers contributing to disruptions and disintermediation in each of our business segments; changing customer behaviour and the expansion of cloud-based, OTT and other alternative solutions; advertising market pressures from economic conditions, fragmentation and non-traditional/global digital services; rising content costs and challenges in our ability to acquire or develop key content; high Canadian Internet and smartphone penetration; the failure to evolve and transform our networks, systems and operations using next-generation technologies while lowering our cost structure, including the failure to transition from a traditional telecommunications company to a tech services and digital media company and meet customer expectations of product and service experience; the inability to drive a positive customer experience; the inability to protect our physical and non-physical assets from events such as information security attacks, unauthorized access or entry, fire and natural disasters; the failure to implement an effective data governance framework; the failure to attract, develop and retain a diverse and talented team capable of furthering our strategic imperatives and high-tech transformation; the potential deterioration in employee morale and engagement resulting from staff reductions, cost reductions or reorganizations and the de-prioritization of transformation initiatives due to staff reductions, cost reductions or reorganizations; the failure to adequately manage health and safety concerns; labour disruptions and shortages; the risk that we may need to incur significant capital expenditures to provide additional capacity and reduce network congestion; service interruptions or outages due to network failures or slowdowns; events affecting the functionality of, and our ability to protect, test, maintain, replace and upgrade, our networks, information technology (IT) systems, equipment and other facilities; the failure by other telecommunications carriers on which we rely to provide services to complete planned and sufficient testing, maintenance, replacement or upgrade of their networks, equipment and other facilities, which could disrupt our operations including through network or other infrastructure failures; the complexity of our operations and IT systems and the failure to implement or maintain highly effective processes and IT systems; in-orbit and other operational risks to which the satellites used to provide our satellite TV services are subject; the inability to access adequate sources of capital and generate sufficient cash flows from operating activities to meet our cash requirements, fund capital expenditures and provide for planned growth; uncertainty as to whether dividends will be declared or the dividend on common shares will be maintained or increased by BCE’s board of directors; the failure to reduce costs and adequately assess investment priorities, as well as unexpected increases in costs; the inability to manage various credit, liquidity and market risks; the failure to evolve practices to effectively monitor and control fraudulent activities; new or higher taxes due to new tax laws or changes thereto or in the interpretation thereof, and the inability to predict the outcome of government audits; the impact on our financial statements and estimates from a number of factors; pension obligation volatility and increased contributions to post-employment benefit plans; our dependence on third-party suppliers, outsourcers and consultants to provide an uninterrupted supply of the products and services we need; the failure of our vendor selection, governance and oversight processes, including our management of supplier risk in the areas of security, data governance and responsible procurement; the quality of our products and services and the extent to which they may be subject to defects or fail to comply with applicable government regulations and standards; reputational risks and the inability to meaningfully integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations into our business strategy and operations; the failure to take appropriate actions to adapt to current and emerging environmental impacts, including climate change; pandemics, epidemics and other health risks, including health concerns about radio frequency emissions from wireless communications devices and equipment; the inability to adequately manage social issues; the failure to develop and implement sufficient corporate governance practices; the adverse impact of various internal and external factors on our ability to achieve our ESG targets including, without limitation, those related to greenhouse gas emissions reduction and diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging; the completion of the proposed disposition of Northwestel Inc. is subject to closing conditions, including the purchaser securing financing and the completion of confirmatory due diligence and, as such, there can be no assurances that the proposed disposition will ultimately be consummated or that it will be consummated on the terms and conditions currently contemplated; the expected timing and completion of the proposed disposition of BCE’s ownership stake in MLSE and the planned access for Bell Media to content rights for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors for the next 20 years through a long-term agreement with Rogers are subject to closing conditions, including relevant sports league and other customary approvals, and the intended use of proceeds by BCE from the proposed disposition may vary based on timing of closing of the disposition and other factors and, as such, there can be no assurances that the proposed disposition, the anticipated use of proceeds and anticipated benefits from the proposed disposition will occur, or that they will occur on the terms and conditions, or at the time, currently contemplated; and the expected timing and completion of the proposed acquisition of Ziply Fiber are subject to customary closing conditions, including relevant regulatory approvals, such as approval by the Federal Communications Commission and approvals by state Public Utilities Commissions and, as such, there can be no assurances that the proposed acquisition and the potential benefits expected to result from the proposed acquisition will occur, or that they will occur on the terms and conditions, or at the time, currently contemplated.
We caution that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect our results. We encourage investors to also read BCE’s 2023 Annual MD&A dated March 7, 2024 and BCE’s 2024 First, Second and Third Quarter MD&As dated May 1, 2024, July 31, 2024 and November 6, 2024, respectively, and BCE’s news release dated November 7, 2024 announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2024 for additional information with respect to certain of these and other assumptions and risks, filed by BCE with the Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities (available at sedarplus.ca) and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (available at SEC.gov). These documents are also available at BCE.ca.